Amidst headlines and news of tariffs that seem to get more aggressive every time I wake up each morning, I wanted to send where our team’s thoughts are. The market- we all know- doesn’t go up in a straight line, as we’re reminded of once again in 2025. The road is far bumpier than that. But when you stay on the path during the most difficult times, the long-term outcomes have the ability to be very rewarding.

We’re in the midst of a sell-off that will go down in history as one of the biggest and fastest drops in such a short period of time. Remember the crash of March 2020? Markets sold off 33% in about 30 days. We’re seeing the same volatility now and even larger swings intra-day than we saw in 2020.

During time of crisis and headlines, it’s difficult to sit on your hands and watch. Investing is emotional. We get it, we truly do. We’re humans and invested in the stock market just like all our clients we continue to serve.

This is why financial plans exist. For every one of you we’ve built a plan for, whether it’s retirement, college savings, or whatever your various goals are, they are not dependent on what the stock market does in the short term. They’re dependent on continuing to save, invest, and follow the plan that we have put together. Your plan is built for times like these. It’s long-term, intentional, and designed to weather ups and downs like we’re having now.

We’re meeting internally continuously to help ensure portfolios are structured properly, whether the tariff war comes to an end tomorrow or extends for 6 more months. We’ll continue to keep you updated on our thoughts. If you feel adjustments need to be made to your personal accounts – whether it’s buying the dip while the market is down, or making sure you have enough in fixed income, reach out. We’re available to talk it through.

I want to leave you with a couple of quotes we’ve heard over the past few days as well as what this volatility has historically meant for markets over the long term.

 

“Bad investors sell in markets like this.

Good investors get nervous but hold.

Great investors are completely unfazed.

The best investors get excited about potential opportunities.”

 

This chart shows historically when the VIX (volatility index) closes above 50, what the forward returns look like. This just occurred for the 75^th time. What happened the other 74 times? The market finished higher every single time on a 1 year, 2 year, 3 year, 4 year, and 5 year forward basis. Could this time be different? Sure. But I like the odds based on what history tells us.

Any opinions are those of David Adams and not necessarily those of Raymond James.  This information is intended to be educational and is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific investor.  The information contained herein does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including asset allocation and diversification. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX® Index®) is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor’s results will vary.