With the recent escalation in the Middle East and the volatility we’ve seen in markets over the past few days, I wanted to send a quick note to share some perspective. Whenever geopolitical events like this occur, it’s natural for markets to react in the short term. But from an investment standpoint, it’s important to zoom out. As investors, we have to separate emotion from decision-making.

A few things we’re watching:

1. Energy prices have moved higher. Oil briefly moved above $100 per barrel as markets reacted to potential disruptions in the Persian Gulf. That said, futures markets suggest prices are expected to normalize over time as supply adjusts.
2. Markets are reacting, but this isn’t unusual. Periods of geopolitical uncertainty often create short-term pullbacks. Historically, the S&P 500 experiences several pullbacks of 5% or more each year, with an average intra-year decline of about 14%.
3. The broader economic impact is expected to be limited. Our base case is that this conflict remains relatively contained and short-lived. If that proves true, the long-term outlook for economic growth and corporate earnings remains intact.
4. U.S. companies have limited direct exposure to the region. Only a small portion of S&P 500 revenues come from Iran or the broader Middle East, which helps limit the potential impact on overall corporate earnings.Here’s the key takeaway: while headlines can feel dramatic, these types of events have historically created temporary volatility rather than long-term market damage. That doesn’t mean volatility disappears. It doesn’t mean there aren’t scary days. But it does mean that global businesses adapt, economies adjust, and capital keeps moving forward. The mistake investors often make is assuming that “this time must be different.” Sometimes it is. Most of the time, it isn’t.

The bigger point is that markets have navigated wars, geopolitical conflicts, and crises many times before, and the long-term trend has consistently been upward for disciplined investors. Your financial plan wasn’t built for peaceful headlines only. It was built assuming uncertainty is normal. Because it is. We diversify not because we can predict the next conflict, but because we know something unpredictable will happen eventually. Trying to trade around geopolitical headlines is rarely productive. The only thing history has shown consistently is that staying in cash out of fear tends to do the most damage over time.

As always, our focus remains on your long-term plan rather than short-term headlines. If anything changes in a meaningful way, we’ll certainly let you know. In the meantime, please don’t hesitate to reach out if you’d like to talk through anything.