At Adams Wealth Partners, we talk with clients every week who are wrestling with one of two questions. “Should I get out until things settle down?” Or, on the flip side, “Haven’t I saved enough to just play it safe now?”

Both questions come from a good place. Nobody wants to watch their savings shrink, and nobody wants to gamble with money they’ll need for the next 20 or 30 years. But two simple charts, built from decades of market history, show why both instincts, if followed too closely, can quietly work against the very goals they’re meant to protect.

The Cost of Trying to Avoid Volatility

Look at the S&P 500 from 1995 to 2025. A fully invested $100,000 grew to $1,921,677, an annualized return of 10.3%.

Now miss just the 10 best days over that same 30-year stretch. The ending balance drops to $854,910. Miss the 20 best days and it falls to $495,515. Miss 60 of the best days, and the portfolio has actually lost value relative to inflation.

Here’s the part that catches most people off guard. Many of the market’s best days happen in the middle of its worst stretches, often within days of a major decline. The instinct to step out during turbulence, wait for calmer waters, and jump back in later rarely plays out the way people hope. Time in the market has mattered far more than timing the market.

The Cost of Playing It Too Safe

The opposite fear carries its own price tag. Take $1 million invested from 1989 through 2025 with a 4% annual withdrawal rate.

A 100% bond portfolio grew to $1,360,224. A 50/50 mix of stocks and bonds grew to $4,065,971. A 100% stock portfolio grew to $9,227,479.

The bond-only portfolio didn’t fail anyone. But it left a substantial amount of growth on the table over a multi-decade retirement, growth that could mean the difference between a comfortable retirement and a constrained one, especially when that portfolio needs to support 20, 30, or more years of withdrawals.

Two Fears, One Lesson

These charts represent opposite instincts. One is the fear of loss, which tempts investors to sell or sit out during volatility. The other is the fear of risk, which tempts investors to hold too much in conservative assets for too long. Both are reasonable. Both can quietly undermine the same goal, which is having enough growth to support a long, comfortable retirement.

Three decades of data point toward a more measured approach. Staying invested through volatility and maintaining the growth potential that fits your time horizon aren’t about predicting what the market will do next. They’re about giving your money the time and exposure it needs to work the way markets have historically rewarded patient, long-term investors.

If you’re not sure whether your current allocation reflects your time horizon and goals, that’s exactly the conversation worth having with your advisor. We’re always here to talk it through.

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Source: Bloomberg L.P., 12/31/95 to 12/31/25, and FactSet/Ibbotson Associates, 12/31/1990 to 12/31/2025. For illustrative purposes only. Charts are hypothetical examples and do not predict or depict the performance of any investment. Indexes cannot be purchased directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Any opinions are those of Adams Wealth Partners and not necessarily those of Raymond James.  Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice.  The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete.  The information contained in this material does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material.  Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation.  Past performance may not be indicative of future results.  Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected.  Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.