Good Afternoon,

I just got back from the Raymond James National Conference in Las Vegas, where I brought our entire team for three days of discussions with top economists, Washington policy experts, and industry leaders. (Yes, we are exhausted! But worth it…)

We don’t go to events like this just to attend. We go to challenge our thinking, filter out the noise, and make sure we’re focused on what matters for our clients.

There’s obviously no shortage of headlines right now. Geopolitics, inflation concerns, elections, AI disruption. I wanted to share a few takeaways that I think are worth paying attention to, and that WE are considering in all our portfolio “tweaks”.

1. The headlines look worse than the reality

If you just followed the news this year, you’d expect a much weaker market. Instead, earnings have remained strong, corporate margins are still near historic highs, and the markets have recovered quickly following periods of volatility.

Markets continue to respond to earnings and productivity, not headlines.

2. AI is not a trend, it is a major economic shift

This emerged as the clearest theme throughout the week. AI is being viewed as a productivity revolution, a national priority, and a long-term driver of earnings growth. We are still early in this cycle, and it is already influencing where capital is flowing.

3. The U.S. continues to lead globally

Despite the narrative, the data tells a different story: capital continues flowing into U.S. markets, the dollar remains dominant, and large U.S. companies continue to show resilience and pricing power.

There is no meaningful evidence of investors moving away from the U.S.

4. Geopolitics matters, but mostly through oil

The biggest near-term risk discussed was the Middle East. The key point is that markets care less about the conflict itself and more about whether it disrupts oil supply.

Short-term price spikes are possible, and longer-term impact depends on sustained disruption.

5. The Fed and politics may create volatility, but not derail the market

We will likely see more noise around interest rates, more political pressure, and more uncertainty heading into the election cycle. That can create volatility, but it has not historically changed long-term market direction.

6. Washington and the 2026 election outlook

We also spent time with Washington policy experts discussing the current political landscape and what it could mean going forward. The base case they outlined:

• Democrats are favored to take the House
• Republicans are favored to hold the Senate

If that plays out, it is likely to lead to a split government. From a market standpoint, that tends to mean slower policy changes, more gridlock, and less extreme legislation in either direction.

Historically, markets have often navigated this environment just fine once the uncertainty clears, even if there is some short-term volatility leading up to the election. The key takeaway is that while elections can influence sentiment and create short-term swings, they have not historically been the primary driver of long-term market returns.

Bottom line

The consistent message across multiple economists was simple: the U.S. economy is more resilient than sentiment suggests. Earnings remain strong. The AI-driven productivity cycle is real.

That does not mean it will be a straight line. We should expect volatility. But the long-term drivers are still intact.

If there is one thing I would emphasize after this week, it is this: the biggest risk for most investors is not the headlines — it is reacting to them. Our job is to stay grounded in what drives long-term outcomes and make sure your plan is built around that, not the noise of the moment.